[Al] Brief Analysis of Chalco’s Move to Lift Alumina Price

[SMM Express] Today, the inventory of secondary aluminum alloy ingots in China's major consumption areas increased by 363 mt from the pre-holiday level (April 30) to 30,900 mt, maintaining a slight inventory buildup trend.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Secondary Aluminum Prices Continued to Fall Before the Holiday, Stocking Demand Significantly Insufficient] On the last day before the holiday, the ADC12 market overall continued to be in the doldrums. Affected by the pullback in primary aluminum prices and sluggish downstream demand, enterprises actively lowered their quotes by small margins, and the mainstream transaction center shifted downward. Meanwhile, as the Labour Day holiday approached, downstream enterprises successively entered production suspension or production cuts mode, stocking demand before the holiday was significantly insufficient, and market trading sentiment turned sluggish. In the short term, ADC12 prices may remain in the doldrums, and after the holiday, attention should be focused on the pace of downstream production resumption and demand recovery.

Trong ngắn hạn, xu hướng cốt lõi LME mạnh hơn SHFE khó có thể đảo chiều. Sức mạnh thị trường nước ngoài sẽ hỗ trợ tiềm năng bắt kịp của nhôm SHFE sau kỳ nghỉ, nhưng tồn kho trong nước cao và nhu cầu yếu sẽ hạn chế mức tăng tổng thể. Thời gian tới, trọng tâm sẽ là tốc độ giảm tồn kho nhôm thỏi Trung Quốc và mức độ giải phóng nhu cầu cứng từ việc tái sản xuất của các ngành hạ nguồn.